Games For Money

How to blow a win real good

2005-09-20T22:32:00.000-07:00

Have you ever wondered how to fuck up beating a really good player? I mean, the kind of player who should be a professional?

Just check this out:


Move number 9: X to play 25



    GNU Backgammon  Position ID: d9sIAAn35zAAAA

                    Match ID   : UQn1AEAAKAAA

    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+  O: The Goat

    | O  O  O  O  O    |   |    O             |  4 points

    | O  O  O  O  O    |   |                  |  

    | O  O             |   |                  |  

    |                  |   |                  |  

    |                  |   |                  |  

    |                  |BAR|                  |v 7 point match

    |    7             |   |                  |  

    |    X             |   |                  |  

    | X  X     X       |   |                  |  

    | X  X     X       |   |    X             |  Rolled 25

    | X  X  O  X  O    |   |    X             |  5 points

    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+  X: Brother9 (Cube: 2)

Pip counts: O 83, X 45

I have a 2 5 to play.
What do I play? 8/1
Did I see the 8/3*/1 move? Hell no.

To put it another way:
If I have moved a check from the 8 to the 3, putting him on the bar, then on again to the 1, my odds of winning the entire match are 89.1%. The WHOLE match. To 7. Not just the game. The whole freaking match.

After the move I made? 8/6/1? No hits? 69% to win the match.
Yet I ended up lsing this game and the next one, meaning I lost the match.

FUCK!

Dopamine Agonist

2005-07-12T16:26:00.000-07:00

Seems that if you take dopamine agonists, which are new drugs used to battle Parkinson's, you are at risk to being an addict, mostly to gambling but addictions to other things (sex, drinking, eating).

News at MSNBC

Lost the 2nd.

2005-05-31T21:51:00.000-07:00

I lost the 2nd match to John, 7-5. Goin home early.

First Match

2005-05-31T20:10:00.000-07:00

First match, I beat Karl 7 to 1. Will lightning strike twice? There was, actually, a thunderstorm as I drove in....

Weekly tourney

2005-05-31T19:24:00.000-07:00

Time to make the draws for the weekly backgammon tourney.

Recent play

2005-05-25T12:58:00.000-07:00

So last Saturday I did manage to squeak out a little action for my buck. $30 per person, my daughter and I both played. The guy sitting next to my daughter gave her everything he didn't use in the tournament (~80 cards). I actually won to the level where I got cards as a prize as well.

Last night - backgammon night at the club had me win four matches in a row to take the win for the weekly tournament!

I think last night's performance is a stellar example of offering doubles just below take levels. A lot of players will take, and many more will drop. Determining a good take/drop is exceptionally hard.

Magic Pre-Release

2005-05-23T10:59:00.000-07:00

Even though I didn't get to see Hot MagicArsenal.com Chick at teh pre-release, I did manage to win! Holy crap!

Good times.

Well, Crap!

2005-05-21T14:06:00.000-07:00

Here I am at the Magic: The Gathering prerelease, and the hot chick from magicarsenal.com isnt here! dammit!!

Magic dork dork dork

2005-05-18T13:14:00.000-07:00

The Saviours of Kamigawa pre-release is this weekend and all of the regular readers know what that means.

Hot chick who works at MagicArsenal.com will be there in a tight shirt.

This time: Photos. I must have photos.

Backgammon at the Casino

2005-05-18T09:06:00.000-07:00

FINALLY I was able to strat playing backgammon again last night. And of course I had my ass handed to me - losing 7-4 to Molly in the main flight and 7-4 to Dan in the consolation.

But I'm back in it.

Plus Seattle got the crap kicked out of them against San Antonio; Seattle is not a great team and should really not be playing at this level anyway.

Writing

2005-05-12T14:41:00.000-07:00

I've not been writing here as much as I should - I know that.
I've been spending a lot of time writing at my other blog - gamesformoney.net - as it actually pays me.

But that doesn't excuse me from the more personal blogging I should be doing here.

I'm starting a new job soon. Thankfully. Blessedly. It's temporary but it's paying me closer to what I deserve. I should have some more money to get more involved in the online gambling (as opposed to my strictly gambling at the brick & mortar of the casino) not to mention pay down other debts.

I also will be more involved in backgammon now that my schedule will allow me to return to the Pacific Northwest Backgammon Club and play there once more.

Look more more and more frequent updates.

Derby

2005-05-09T09:15:00.000-07:00

No, I didn't bet Giacomo, nor did I have him in any wild exotics.

$9,800 exacta. Holy crap.

People are sheep. Kinda.

2005-05-02T10:35:00.000-07:00

The best way to see what someone does with a pocket pair in a poker game is to watch. Payign attention is everything. If they raise, and have QQ, you can be damn sure they'll raise again when they have it again.

Holy crap, they're serious

2005-04-29T10:01:00.000-07:00

Intrade Trading Exchange trades "stock" on their own exchange. Actually it's more like futures. You can buy a "share" of "Osama Bin Laden Captured/Neutralized by May 31, 2005" for $5 - if May 31 rolls around and you own a share of this Intrade pays you $100.

They have "shares' of crap as ridiculous as American Idol winners, who hosts the 2012 games, and - get this - "USA to launch an Air Strike by June 30 against Cuba, Iran, Libya, North Korea, Sudan or Syria" (which is currently going for $4).

Live where????

2005-04-23T00:08:00.000-07:00

American Cities That Best Fit You:

65% Austin

55% Miami

50% Atlanta

50% Denver

50% Washington, DC

Which American Cities Best Fit You?

Austin? Miami? Are you freaking insane????

My eyes are my best feature

2005-04-22T23:55:00.000-07:00

Games For Money Dot Net

2005-04-08T15:13:00.000-07:00

I've been posting less and less here because Niner Niner asked me to blog for their network. I'm set up over there at Games for Money; but I'll keep posting here as well. Especially backgammon, since I found out that the recent bugs with GnuBG have been fixed and I can output to HTML. Sweet!!!!!!!!!!

Shuffle Machines

2005-04-08T15:07:00.000-07:00

A lot of counters think the continuous shuffling machines are the bane of life's existence. To hear some tell it they're worse than pit bosses.

But a smart counter would investigate the math of the machines before they make a decision. And oddly enough, the reason you don't want to play at a table with a CSM is not what you think it may be.

A Continuous Shuffling Machine is a combination automatic shuffler and 4 or 5 deck shoe. After each round the cards played are put back in to shuffle, meaning that you have a constant freshly shuffled 4 card deck before each round. Unlike a game that uses a cut card.

Which would make you think "Holy Crap! I can't keep track of cards any longer if they could be popped right back out almost immediately!" And on the face of it, that's true.

But a substantial mathematical inquiry was taken by Michael Shackleford which showed four points of consideration (and I'll spare you the raw statistics):

The average number of 10s per hand is slightly higher in a CSM game than in a hand-dealt game
The probability of getting a blackjack is slightly higher in a CSM game than in a cut-card game

Which would obviously lead you to the conclusion that
The casino's edge over a basic strategy player is slightly lower (due to #1 moving odds in the players favor and #2 moving more money in the player's favor) in a CSM game than in a cut-card game

however

(everyone I know has a big 'however', including me)
The player is dealt about 20% more hands per hour in a CSM game than in a cut-card game. This means the player will stand to lose about 20% more money per hour (as you cannot truly count a CSM game, only play basic strategy) because while the casino's margin is smaller, the margin is still in the casino's favor.

Best advice? Stay away from the CSM.

Hooters

2005-04-07T09:22:00.000-07:00

John Daly is now sponsored by Hooters.

Once as a Bartender I was forced to deal with this guy. Drinks a lot? That's not even a sensical statement. That's like saying Hunter S Thompson was a bit wild.

*scratches head*
I don't understand how J.D. wasn't already sponsored by Hooters.

Backgammon News - $1 Million Tournament Postponed

2005-04-07T08:53:00.000-07:00

$1 Million Tournament Postponed.

Well, crap.

Freaking taxes.

The Marbella Backgammon International Club regrets to announce that the planned inaugural event featuring the Palamedes Challenge Cup for US$1 million has had to be postponed.

This postponement is for the benefit of our participants. The Spanish Tax Agency – The Hacienda – has today advised us that in addition to paying 16% IVA on the Tournament entry fee, Players could be liable for withholding tax of up to 35% on any prize money won in excess of €600. This clearly would be unacceptable for our participating Players and could not be absorbed by the Tournament

ah well, at least I didn't enter.

But it does raise some points:
Facts:

a tournament payout in American dollars at a Spanish Resort organized by British
the website promoted how all of the VAT would be returned for non-Spanish entrants
the Spanish Tax Agency is called "The Hacienda" making it sound like some central american code for "kickbacks"
Travelling with more than $100,000 in American Cash will cause problems at *any* border, especially the American one.

Speculation:

probably 30% of the entrants are tied to "extralegal" businesses, such as gun running, oil trading, etc.

Nothing about this says "squeaky clean and 100% above board"

I'm just wondering why the payout wasn' t made in diamonds. Easier to get across borders, no worries about exchange rates, etc.

Counting with illegal prostitutes

2005-04-06T10:14:00.000-07:00

I was poking around some sites and I was practicing a little card counting (always work on those card counting skills!!!!!!!!) and I came across the blurb about how Nevada casinos can toss anyone for any reason, blah blah blah.

But then it hit me. That’s a state law. I’m not in Nevada. Have I been hyper-sensitive all this time??? I did a little research and sure enough, New Jersey (a/k/a Atlantic City) casinos are prohibited from barring patrons for counting cards. A HA!!!!

Now I just need to check the Washington state laws.

Keep counting.

At the library

2005-03-26T13:29:00.000-08:00

I just tried to go to my blog from the library and whaddaya know. It's blocked by the library's "Safe Surf" or whatever brand software they use. Huh

Lucky with the Gigi's.

2005-03-25T09:23:00.000-08:00

My dad sent me his picks for today's Hawthorne card:

#5 in the first race
#3 in the 8th race
#6 in the 9th race
#9 in the 10th race (trifecta box 2,6,9 or 2,3,9)
#6 in the 6th race (trifecta box 3,5,6 or 5,6,8)

I'll check with my pops later if indeed I do go on my lunchbreak. He'll have more up-to-date info later. It's 9:20 as I write this; first race at Hawthorne fires at 11:10 (pacific - I'm in Seattle, I know that Hawthorne is in Chicago. Calm down!)

And a double helping

2005-03-23T13:21:00.000-08:00

Hey! Oscar odds were first posted on February 22nd and I missed them? How the hell did that happen?

Let's recap.

77th Annual Academy Awards

Best Motion Picture

Aviator - 1/2
Million Dollar Baby - 6/5
Sideways - 11/2
Ray - 20/1
Finding Neverland - 25/1

Best Actor

Jamie Foxx - 1/12
Leonardo DiCaprio - 9/1
Clint Eastwood - 12/1
Johnny Depp - 16/1
Don Cheadle - 20/1

Best Actress

Hilary Swank - 1/5
Annette Bening - 2/1
Imelda Staunton - 8/1
Kate Winslet - 15/1
Catalina Sandino Moreno - 18/1

Best Supporting Actor

Morgan Freeman - 2/7
Thomas Haden Church - 2/1
Clive Owen - 4/1
Alan Alda - 8/1
Jamie Foxx - 18/1

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett - 1/3
Virginia Madsen - 9/5
Natalie Portman - 7/2
Laura Linney - 8/1
Sopie Okonedo - 10/1

Best Director

Martin Scorsese - 1/2
Clint Eastwood - 6/5
Alexander Payne - 22/1
Taylor Hackford - 30/1
Mike Leigh - 30/1

Are you freaking kidding me? Thomas Hayden Church at 2/1? No way in hell. Hillary Swank won't win again, but there's a magentic repusion for Annettte Benning as well, so who freaking knows.

I'm wondering if I can get a teaser somewhere (probably the UK - they're bet crazy at the locals) on Jamie Foxx not winning either category. I'd take that in a heartbeat.

Craigslist

2005-03-23T13:06:00.000-08:00

Let's get a job on craigslist!

Sheesh.

Next thing you know they'll start having "Muscle" want ads on Monster.com.

BAH-ROKEN!

2005-03-23T11:54:00.000-08:00

So I, along with 98% of the rest of the known world, had my NCAA tournament brackets destroyed.

Freakin Kansas. Freakin Syracuse. Jesus christ.

Anyway. I for some reason picked the Zags to go to the final four (wha???) beating Washington in the Elite 8. (Yeah, I was bein a homer. Deal with it)

Pfft. At least I didn't have substantial money on this.

But it does remind me that yes indeed, it is springtime, which can mean only one (more) thing.

The Arkansas Freakin Derby, followed by the Kentucky Freakin Derby.

Hell yes.

It's time for me to start acting like a horseracin' fool, bustin out my old charts, and calling my dad. He's been keeping track statistics on the Chicagoland tracks for....well, years. And he knows the science of that track (only because Chicago runs all year. Oaklawn still is his home track).

Yea, though verily I say unto thee, the telecasts are raining down upon me as I speak! The mana flows forth upon me at this giant outdoor bank where I make my withdrawals!

So now that I've got racing happening full tilt I can sneak away to the simulcast for a few quickies every day. Sweeeeeeeeet.

Freakin FIBS

2005-03-18T13:57:00.000-08:00

Last night I played some at FIBS and DAMMIT I hate when the dice are screwing me over. I lost five matches I think. Ouch. Awful. One dropped too who was losing miserably so I didn't get the win credit there. Damn this just sucks. My ranking is around 1450 when it should be in the 1700 range. ARGH ARGH ARGH

The problem?

I have no idea. I'm running analysis on my matches and I'm not making huge mistakes. (I did make one that cost me 10% equity but that match I ended up winning anwyay) 1-4 in an evening is unacceptable. More analysis!

I don't get it. What's wrong?

2005-03-17T17:21:00.000-08:00

So I'm playing the computer today in a friendly 7 point match, and I end up in this position:


 GNU Backgammon  Position ID: d/dAgAC5+wYEAA
                 Match ID   : cAngAAAAIAAA
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: GnuBG
 | X     O          |   |       O  O  O  O |     0 points
 |                  |   |       O  O  O  O |     
 |                  |   |       O  O  O  O |     
 |                  |   |       O          |     
 |                  |   |                  |    
v|                  |BAR|                  |     7 point match (Cube: 1)
 |                  |   |    X             |    
 |                  |   |    X             |     
 |                  |   |    X  X  X       |     
 |                  |   | X  X  X  X       |     On roll
 |                O |   | X  X  X  X     X |     4 points
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: Brother9
Pip counts: O 62, X 72

I offered a double and the computer said "Heck yeah I'll take that action" and then on the analysis on 4-ply (meaning the computer rolled out the position to 5 rolls in the future and then looked at wins) it said I made a huge mistake in offering the double.


Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless MWC  79.95% (Money:  +0.283)
  0.635 0.018 0.000 - 0.365 0.005 0.000
Cubeful equities:
1. No double            79.93%
2. Double, pass         84.62%  (  4.69%)
3. Double, take         78.53%  ( -1.41%)
Proper cube action: No double, take (23.1%)

I have no idea why. I mean, let's look at it:

I'm down 10 pips in an almost straight race, yeah, but I've only got one man out to GNU's two.
I hit his blot on 16 out of 36 shots (almost 45%)
if the computer somehow wins, it will only be a straight win, meaning I'm still leading 4-2 in a 7 point match.
if I miss the shot, I'm a favorite to get back in since he can't cover a 5th point in his inner board. If I miss there is no roll where I can't cover my 5th point.

The only consideration I can think of is that GNU's inner board is stacked heavy, so if it is a straight race, he has a slight bearoff advantage. But if I miss I'm a favorite to bearoff first meaning that I'll have a check advantage.

All I can think of is that I'm down 10 pips at this point and being hit. Which is almost an unlikely scenario after this roll. I'd have to roll less than 6 total (19.5% chance) or exactly 6 (11% chance) and then GNU rolls to hit (most likely 30.5% chance) putting it at about 9% for BOTH to happen.

I'm going to have to ask around about this. It seems so obviously DOUBLE here, since I'm a favorite to hit and it puts me at a better chance for a gammon if I do and cover. A straight win for me makes the match 6-0 out of seven. Yeah I'm definitely going to have to ask someone smarter than me about this.

As it is I offerd the double, GNU took (obviously) and I won.

2005 PNWC

2005-03-16T11:48:00.000-08:00

2005 Pacific Northwest Backgammon Championships dates are announced. Freaking awesome.

The Marbella Gathering update

2005-03-11T14:59:00.000-08:00

I just looked more closely at the site and they already have 111 people signed up for this backgammon smackdown. Holy shit.

But then when you offer over a mil to the winner, I guess people will come out of the woodwork. Not to mention being the kind of thing that people who don't normally play tournaments (read: hustlers) will attend.

Which points out another difference between backgammon tournaments and poker tournaments. Poker tournaments tend to be "earn your way in" in some respects - yeah you can buy your way in to a substantial degree, but in a backgammon tournament, that's just a big free for all. If you got the scratch to pony up, you're in buddy.

The Marbella Gathering

2005-03-11T14:16:00.000-08:00

The Marbella Gathering | Palamedes Challenge Cup - $1 million dollar backgammon competition

That's right folks. A backgammon tournament with one million dollars going to the winner.
NOTE: it's not a 1 mil prize pool - it's ONE MILLION DOLLARS going to first place.

A mere 10,000 Euro entry fee (but then again, Americans would get their VAT back making the real entry fee 8,621 euros).

Hurry, registration closes April 4. And there is a consolation round - winner of the consolation round gets $50k.

So let's look at the raw money involved:
you'll have to come up with 10,000 euros (then apply for and get back the tax). Plus travel to Marbella, Spain (not that that is a disadvantage). Plus hotel rooms starting at 250 euros +7% VAT.

You'll also need a tuxedo, gentlemen. The dinners are very swank.

One hell of a vacation.

But anyway. Let's look at the cost:
Games start the 14th of April (a thursday) and continue through Sunday. So let's say you somehow arrive on Thursday. 3 nights - 750 euros + VAT
Food - let's say another 100 Euros since the entry fee covers dinners. It's a swanky resort area, after all, and 100 euros for 6 meals is cheap even by Seattle standards. But still.
Another 500 Euros for side bets. Actually you'll probably want 1000 to be able to stay in the game. And there'll probably be 20 euro point chouettes going to keep things "interesting." But you can always beg out of those if you're good at glad-handing. British peers will be thick at this place anyway. It's hosted by Sir Dai Llewellyn, after all. So 500 for "light" gambling after hours. Especially if you get whacked in the first round. so 600 euros for incidentals, 750 for hotel, (+7% which you'll get back), puts you at about 1405 euros.

Plus 10,000 euros to even set foot in the place, let's not forget. So we'll call it an even 11500 Euros, just to keep things fair. (let's not forget airfare!)

OK so - how much is a freakin euro?
As I write this (after close on March 11) the Euro is going for $1.3416. Not including bank fees. But those are so piddling.

So that puts us at roughly $15,430. Not bad, really, seeing as how $13,416 of that is the entry fee. Which means if you win (I'd say they'll get about 50-55 people entering, maybe more), you'd clear over $980,000 (since there are additional bonuses for various wins I didn't get into, and you'll be getting back about $2k for the VAT once you return stateside) for three days work.

Not too shabby.

Now the only problem is making sure you kick enough ass to take that money.

back to normal kinda maybe

2005-02-21T20:02:00.000-08:00

whew.
I have been doing absolutely no work at work. And for that matter I've not been playing as much backgammon as I should either. I've not been running positions or anything.

I have been seeing a lot of Mary. Or at least as much as I can.

And Anna was with me all weekend and when she had to go back to her mom she cried and didn't want to go. I'm so glad she's finally getting closer to me again. We had the best time this weekend.

I'm supposed to be writing a test right now. I'm doing it! Stop looking at me like that!

New BG tournament rule

2005-02-16T13:31:00.000-08:00

So I've been gone over a week. Seems longer.

Last week I was busy between looking for work, self-respect, good cards, active dice, and who knows what else. I was also busy not celebrating my birthday.

I did play "hot" at the local casino - never play cards angry - and lost abotu $25. Sheesh.

But, now, here, more importantly, I find something that might just shake my initial conception of backgammon.

There is a movement to incorporate the "Simborg Rule" into tournemant backgammon. It's a simple rule:

The Simborg Rule: It is not legal to make a point on the opening roll

Which means that if I am the first player and I get a 3-1 I am not allowed to make my 5 point. But my opponent, moving second, is allowed to make that point.

Presumably this is to eliminate random swings based on pure luck (if you roll 3-1 on the opening roll and make the 5 point you are already a 55% favorite to win. 6-1 making the bar point makes you a 53% favorite to win.

I think the only way this will truly be a specatcular rule (Simborg wants it to be as universal as the Jacoby and Crawford rules) is if it affects both players on each player's first roll. Otherwise it's unnecessarily handicapping the person who - by luck - gets the opening roll.

Junk Mail

2005-02-10T09:28:00.000-08:00

Apparently many of my notifications of comments have been filtered into my Junk Mail folder. How that happened I dunno but I'll investigate.

Now there I go thinking again

2005-02-09T14:13:00.000-08:00

I wonder what the likelihood of purchasing a professional (or minor league) sports team as a co-operative would be?

Let's say you get a bunch of people to purchase "shares" of the team at $10 each, who knows how many shares. Then profits are split amongst everyone. One share per person, obviously. Moneyball!

Dangit

2005-02-09T13:37:00.000-08:00

I just broke my chair.

Maybe it's a start

2005-02-06T22:12:00.000-08:00

Turns out I may have hit someone's nerve.

Look, here's the deal.

Making money fast involves heavy risk.

Playing poker, your risk is obvious.

Plopping money down on someone's scheme - the risks inherent in that are NOT obvious and you have to know what the hell is going on. And if me telling you (and anyone else reading this) that blogging will not make you any money, then you'd better wake up. Your scheme is transparent.

Coin toss

2005-02-06T22:09:00.000-08:00

In case you weren't paying attention, the coin toss was tails.

Press releases from Bodog and other online joints said that the wagers on the toss (heads and tails were both -110) were 70% heads.

NE won, made the under, but didn't work the spread. Bastards.

money lines? it's a freaking coin toss

2005-02-06T00:35:00.000-08:00

Apparently 70% of the coin flip bets for the Super Bowl are heads.

I don't understand it either.

The line's still at 7, meaning total doom for betting agents if the patriots actually manage to win by seven, resulting in a shitload of refunds.

Because you see, if the bets all end in a draw, then ALL money is refunded. If one team or the other wins, presumably the bets are 50% pats and 50% eagles, meaning that the casinos just pay the winners with teh loser's money then take an extra 10% on the losers, making money either way.

But if it's actually a push, the casinos get absolutely zero.

Except on the coin flips. Morons. Sheesh.

Well, lookee there

2005-02-01T11:07:00.000-08:00

TO says he's gonna play and the line creeps to NE - 7.5.

Uh huh.

Philadelphia needs to do something about their team's attitude. They're all acting like Hugh Laurie on House when he said "There's no 'I' in 'team', but there is an 'm-e'."

T.O.

2005-02-01T10:58:00.000-08:00

T.O says he's going to play on Sunday.

Can you hear that?

That's the sound of money moving even heavier towards New England.

Midweek - it might be time to check a few lines around the 'net.

DAMMIT

2005-01-31T15:24:00.000-08:00

I really want a donut.

Goin back home?

2005-01-30T23:15:00.000-08:00

I've been bombarded with agressive assaults of "home" this past week.
And not from the usual source. I haven't talked to Dad this week (which is particularly strange since the horses are running at Oaklawn Park right now). But I did hear form Aaron a few times. He called to say that the animation company in Pennsylvania who was making his film REALLY fucked up so they had to ship it out to Korea. He also told me about his new condo in Brentwood, Cal-I-For-Nye-Aye as well as his nutcase of a girlfriend (why are all of the therapists insane? hm???) and our high school friend whose wife does all kinds of acting and long story short, Aaron wanted to know when I was going back to Fayetteville (that's the one in Arkansas) and I had to say that I just have no reason to go to Arkansas anymore since the only family I have left there are my Dad and the members of my dad's family which make "King of the Hill" a documentary of my life. Thankfully none of my dad's relatives live near Fayetteville, but still. My dad actually does have a cousin who talks like Boomhauer. Aaron mentinoed that one of our friends was in a car crash and was seriously hurt (dead? I can't say as some of the conversation was taking place over voicemails resulting from odd disconnects).

I need to hook up again with Aaron in Vegas. I can ask him to hire me for something and he can uncomfortably change the subject.

And my birthfather called me, resulting in an explanation as to why all my calls to him went unanswered. He moved from Maine to New Hampshire. Of course. Which does bring up the obvious "Why did I only call his house phone and not his cell phone" but then that would simply be way too logical.

Silver Dollar Casino

2005-01-30T22:29:00.000-08:00

I'm driving up from Portland this weekend and stopped by the Silver Dollar casino in Lakewood. For those of you reading this outside of the Seattle/Tacoma metro area, I was about 45 minutes south of Seattle.

Anyway. The Silver Dollar recently expanded to this facility, so I decided to check it out. They have a 24 hour restaurant, after all.

The first thing I'm confronted with is that the view of the interior through the door is desolate. The only thing I can see is one person sitting at the pull-tab bar. The gaming tables are a LONG way away from the front door; it looks like you're going into a restaurant that hasn't finished construction before they open.

Looking closer I see a Dress Code sign - a welcome sign as most casinos don't have a posted dress code. What caught my eye was rule #2. You'd think it would be something like "Jackets required" or "No black tshirts" or "no baseball caps" or something like that. Rule #1 was "No sleeveless shirts" if I remember correctly. I'll have to make it a point to go back and see if I can get the complete list, but for now trust me on what rule #2 was:

No towels.

If your fashionable ensemble for the evening consists of the towel you ripped from the Palm Springs Hilton, I'm sorry, you can't go to the Silver Dollar Casino in Lakewood. I don't remember seeing any prohibitions on being wet and naked.

Speaking of, I might have to go check the Silver Dollar up in SeaTac to see if that location has the same dress code rules.

More superbowl lines

2005-01-28T10:52:00.000-08:00

The general consensus is +- 7 for the game, o/u 48, no matter how you slice it. Some may be offering a half point off from that but the line's pretty stable. February 4th will show a lot of changes if any, and the 5th will swing all of the wild plays back into place. Sunday the 6th is what makes gambling perverse. Wild-ass "hunches" and "expert picks" will dominate meaning that anythign could happen to the line. If you've got a good phone and a good book you can clean up in the 5 minutes before the coin flip.

I have seen some places offering a straight wager on the second half of the game, meaning even money on who scores more points in the second half. Interesting. These wil surely change though as halftime approaches (since this bet fires at the start of the second half, it's one of the very VERY few bets you can make after the start of the game).

There is a NE +1/2 line on the first quarter of the game. With an o/u of 7 1/2 for the first quarter. Damn. That's a wild bet for you. Parlaying all over/under bets (all four quarters, plus halves, plus game). Too much for me. The o/u on the quarters has seen enough action to resolve into a money line though - that 7 1/2 point line is -135 on the over and +115 on the under. Maybe enough people start betting the over and we'll see it move to 8 or even 9.

GnuBG

2005-01-28T10:17:00.000-08:00

Of course I forgot to bring my thumb drive in to work, which is what I keep my backgammon software and positions on.

I'm working a short day today, and I thought I could fill the time with some lovely backgammon. But no. Stupid me forgot my flippin thumbdrive.

Blogger: Your Comment Has Been Saved

2005-01-27T13:33:00.000-08:00

CHEEEE RIST My head is freaking killing me. I don't remember having a headache this bad in......

I don't remember having a headache this bad.

Moneyline

2005-01-27T09:09:00.000-08:00

The moneyline has freaking EXPLODED and now the Pats are -270 and the Eagles +230.

Which, as you remember, means that for every $1 you bet on the Eagles to win (straight, no line, no chaser), you get $3.30 if they win ($2.30 + your original $1 bet). And for every $1 you bet on the Patriots to win (straight, no line) you get $1.37 ($0.37 + your $1).

Or more simply, bet $270 on the Pats to win $100

I'm not so sure it's worth the risk. It'll have to get to the ludicrous Lakers v. Pistons proportions (where the line was Lakers -900) before I'd consider the Eagles in a straight line like that.

Line's still predominantly at 7, which means there's either light action or there are a lot more idiot Eagles fans betting Philly +7 than I'd anticipated.

Superbowl line

2005-01-25T09:51:00.000-08:00

OK Current line.
Pats -7, but Bodog (*sigh*, I know....I don't promote, but I'm at the website looking at the various odds.) they have a moneyline where Pats are -255 and Philly is +215. Hrm.....interesting.......

They're very uninteresting with their prop bets - Heads/Tails on the flip @ -105 for each. Halftime is Pats -4.5, o/u 24 (the o/u for the game is 48, which smells like a HUGE under)

I'll have to poke around some more and see if I can get some differnt action. Covers.com maybe. Which I like, because they have a wireless site I can access on my phone.

Online Gambling

2005-01-25T09:46:00.000-08:00

I have a rule that I'd never promote a particular website with respect to gambling. I could care less if you bet online, if you use an illegal book, or if you fly to Nevada. But I just got a press release that says Bodog is offering Superbowl bets with no juice. You have to make the bets between 12 noon and 12 mid on Jan. 30th, and it's pointspread bets only, but still. No juice.

Magic Magic Magic

2005-01-24T14:10:00.000-08:00

So yeah I went to the Betrayers of Kamigawa pre-release this past weekend and it went pretty well.

It cost $30 per person per round, and I paid for me and my daughter. So there's $60 right there up front.
You get one tournament pack (75 cards) plus three booster packs (15 cards each) - the tournament pack was for the Champions of Kamigawa base set and the boosters were from the as-yet-unreleased Betrayers of Kamigawa.

Since they gave us more cards up front (you get to keep the cards you end up with), the payouts in the matches were lower. You had to win 2 matches, lose 1 and draw 1 in order to get any packs whatsoever.

I go through all of my cards and I found out after the fact that I'd gotten the most valuable card in the entire Kamigawa set to date - Cranial Extraction - which I didn't use in the game. I got what seemed to me to be a lot of fantastic cards in the Betrayers expansion but since they aren't released until Feburary there's no way to determine which cards are valuable and which aren't.

So - $60 to get in. I figure $12 for a tournament pack, and the dealers were selling Kamigawa boosters for $3 each (though they'll sell for $3.75). That makes $42 worth of cards without considering their individual values. Plus the two pre-release cards: the Pre-release card from the last event we went to is now selling for $7; I'll say this one will be worth the same. So now we're at $56 worth of cards.

Plus I got the $20 card in my block; I didn't bother looking up every single card, but my daughter pointed out to me that that was a really expensive card. The ex's bf said they were selling it for $35 at some other card shop but since they were actually selling them for $20 through MagicArsenal.com (home of the sexy sexy chick who works all these pre-releases, and who once more commented on my backpack *swoon*), I'm claiming it as a $20 card.

Then on top of that my daughter went 3-1 in her matches meaning she won 8 more packs of cards; that adds $24 to the total, making it an even $100. $40 profit on the day. Kinda.

And as an added bonus sexy sexy chick was working her pants while behind the table giving me all kinds of looks down her jeans. ey-pa!!!!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

2005-01-24T13:03:00.000-08:00

Here's to all of the people who came to my blog through Emergency Cash Generators:

I don't make one dime from this.

There are probably as many as 4 actual profit-making blogs in the entire world, not including ones written by people already being paid for something else.

As much as you want to believe you can sit on the couch and blog and people will pay you money to do nothing three or five times a day, it ain't gonna happen.

The only way I could imagine someone can make money from writing a blog (who isn't already making money based on their existing fame and prestige) is to own a niche blog which is highly interesting and entertaining. Problem is, your blog won't be highly interesting nor entertaining if you try to identify the "hot trends" now and then write about them.

Just go bet on some sports games, play some poker, play some blackjack. Making money fast belongs to people who are able to sell make money fast schemes.

Superbowl

2005-01-24T09:41:00.000-08:00

I picked both winners and they HAMMERED the spread this weekend.

So maybe now you'll trust me in my picks.

Announced line before the end of the Pats game was 6.5 in Vegas. It's already been bet heavy enough on the Pats to move it to a straight Pats-7.

I love the Superbowl for the bizarre bets available you can't find in any other game. Who wins the coin flip? Who scores first? Who scores the fist touchdown? First FG? First points? Over unders for every quarter. Spreads for every quarter. Longest punt. Longest kickoff. Who scores more points: Pats or Shaq? (I ALWYAS love that kind of bet)

As for me, I have no problem taking Pats -7 in the Superbowl.

Weekend of fun n games

2005-01-20T09:35:00.000-08:00

The line on the Philly game slipped to Philly -4.5 - substantially better than -5 but still....it's obviously a taker at -4.5 but can someone explain why the line is dropping???? Are there really that many people who think Atlanta won't have their ass handed to them?

The NE line is still -3, the o/u is a tiny 36. yeech. It'll be cold in Three Rivers, for sure, but....yeah I dunno. I guess I'll go under there.

sportsbet.com is offering odds on a score in the final three minutes of the Pats/Steelers game - betting 'yes' on there being a score is at -110, betting 'no' on the score is at -120. Which will explain why you want to be the bookmaker and not the gambler.

In othe rnews, there's another Magic pre-release this weekend, and I'll probably go with my daughter to check out the hot chick who works there every time. That's my best bet the whole weekend.

Double or no?

2005-01-19T14:18:00.001-08:00

Here's a close position:

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 6, user 0 (match to 11 points)
Match Information:

Date: January 19, 2005
Move number 4: X on roll, cube decision?

GNU Backgammon Position ID: GrcNAwKYbRkDBg
Match ID : cAlgAWAAAAAA


 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: gnubg

 |    X     O  O  O |   | O     X  O  O    |     6 points

 |    X     O  O  O |   | O     X  O       |     

 |                  |   | O                |     

 |                  |   |                  |     

 |                  |   |                  |    

v|                  |BAR|                  |     11 point match 

 |                  |   |                  |     (Cube: 1)

 |                  |   |                  |     

 |                  |   |                  |     

 | O  X        X  X |   | X     X          |     On roll

 | O  X     X  X  X |   | X  O  X          |     0 points

 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: user

Pip counts: O 120, X 151

and what makes it close is exactly what I'm weakest at in this game: determining match equity.

If this were a money game there's no way I'd accept, and for that matter there's no way my opponent should double. But this is a match, and there are still chances for my opponent to royally fuck this up.

Note that while I'm WAY behind in the race, I'm actually a favorite to win because I'm in a good position to block him in in my home board while his is about to crumble. I'll have many more chances to hit one of his blots than he will mine in the next 4 or 5 turns. So my odds of winning this single game are nearly 60%, and 15% of my wins are gammons. Smells like a double, no? I have to get back in this.

No.

This is actually on the edge. My equity (my value in the match as described in relative percent) is barely over 21%. My equity if I pass the cube is barely under 20%. (21.09% vs. 20.99%) Seems like a worthwhile risk, really, since I'm so far behind. (in a cubeless situation, for those who live on math, my equity is actually less than 20% - it's my chances of gammons here and my very slim chance of winning a backgammon that put me in a better position)

And that's the problem. I'm so far behind. I need to be slow and steady. Not the jackrabbit. 15% of my losses are gammons as well. And on top of that, I lose the biggest hammer I own. The cube. One good set of rolls and that cube is back at me and I'll be forced to drop. If you are a gambler, why not. It's a bit risky, your payoff won't match your odds. But it will make for a thrillride. If this were a straight money match, I'd offer 75 cents; if I were the opponent I woudln't take less than 80 cents.

This is one to keep in a notebook: one to show the low end of offered doubles. It's also a good example to beginners to work out why being behind in the actual race can give you a massive advantage.

a position to clear the mind

2005-01-19T13:08:00.000-08:00

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, user 0 (match to 11 points)
Match Information:

Date: January 19, 2005
Move number 5: X to play 61

GNU Backgammon Position ID: 2+qAAQPmuRkwAA
Match ID : QQlnAQAAAAAA


 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: gnubg (Cube: 2)

 |          X       |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |     0 points

 |          X       |   | O        O  O  O |     

 |                  |   | O                |     

 |                  |   |                  |     

 |                  |   |                  |    

v|                  |BAR|                  |     11 point match

 |                  |   |                  |    

 |                  |   |       X          |     

 |                  |   | X     X          |     

 | O        X     X |   | X  O  X     X    |     Rolled 61

 | O        X     X |   | X  O  X     X    |     0 points

 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: user

Pip counts: O 105, X 102

Things to consider:
The race is about even , even though it looks like I have a substantial lead. The comp. has a massive home board and I have to look out for blots. If I split my back men, I run a possible risk of backgammon, which even now is not that much of a crusher (I'd be behind 6-0 to 11, which isn't that big of a deal. Bad, but definitely not insurmountable). My initial reaction is 7/6 7/1; I'd also considered 16/9 as a weak second but because of the backgammon risks inherent in it it's a distant second.

As I look at it 9/3 4/3 is possible as well, probably better than 16/9. I'll do some rollouts. However it did point out that the 9/8 9/3 move, compared unrolled, to the rolled out other moves, was even better. I'll re-evaluate including that roll.

Weekend of Football Passion

2005-01-18T14:13:00.000-08:00

Early lines:
Philly -4.5 over Atlanta, o/u 41
New England -3 over Pitt, o/u 36

I did so crappy last time on the over/under I hate to guess. The line at -3 for the Pats/Steelers game looks WAY too close to push for comfort. It needs to move a half point either way but as it is I like the steelers.

Philly's gonna roll over Atlanta.

I'm interested to see how the o/u line moves.

Weekend games

2005-01-18T09:28:00.000-08:00

I won't rub it in by pointing out that I picked every game this weekend.

Sure, I went 1-3 in the over/under. So I'll just leave that alone.

+10% juice on the losers

2005-01-15T20:02:00.000-08:00

As I write this the Rams ar desperately trying to claw their way out of the grave their offensive line has dug. The Steelers have already beaten the Jets, but if you check my previous picks I wanted Jets +9 and the over. Steelers won 20-17, so I won both bets.

I also picked the Falcons +7 and the more I watch this game the more I have to wonder who is going to lose their job over that line. Unless the Rams can somehow score 30 points in the next 10 minutes of game play....I'll admit I picked the under here, which is already blown out of the water (there's 57 points scored so far). To that's three wins today, and one loss on my picks. Assuming I bet $100 per, at 10% juice on the loser bets only(and since I'm not an online gambler I don't know if you can get that kind of action), it'll look something like this:

Jets +9 - +$100
Steelers/Jets over - +100
Hawks +7 - +100
Hawks/Rams under - -$110

So +$190. Not too shabby. We'll see how tomorrow winds up.

Napoleon. Dynamite?

2005-01-13T10:09:00.000-08:00

Just before Christmas I watched Napoleon Dynamite because the ex and her bf are absolutely stark-raving nuts about it and cuz Smushy, my most favoritest club chica in San Fran absolutely hated it. So I figured ther emust be something to it if it can generate such love and such bile.

I guess the best way to describe this movie is...
Well, it's like being forced to listen to conversation of the person behind you in the checkout line at Wal-Mart.
For TWO HOURS.

Oh my god the only reason I didn't turn this movie off after the first 20 minutes is because I didn't want my subconscious to think I was equating it with the wholesome goodness of porn.

This movie sucked. And not in a full-on "this is a real freakin POS" way. In a roll-your-eyes way.

Buying time to work on Cosmology

2005-01-12T14:56:00.000-08:00

Looks like I managed to buy myself a half hour or so in finding a massive documentation error.

Seems IT screwed up in describing their filenames. Shocker.

And while a programmer reading this might say "but the program is more important than the documentation; they actually make the product" I'm currently writing the testing protocols and if IT isn't going to tell me what files they are using then we can't test them properly. Remember that we ain't Microsoft over here, we're actually making software that, if it goes wrong, could literally kill someone by creating a contaminated blood product.

Jesus.

Well, the IT people here aren't really as high-and-mighty as they are in other places (this is actually the only place I've worked at where the testing staff is given more clout than the programming staff), I woudl hope that when they make a document change that says "Use filename5 rather than filename1," that they'll stop referring to filename1.

Or am I asking for too much?

Yes, it is my job to find these errors. But I have, and now even MORE pressure is going to be put on me to meet the deadline. The deadlines are continually pushed out because IT will not OK document changes in a timely fashion. They'll say something like "Yes, we can approve that and the docs can be updated in time for lunch" but if they don't approve anything until 3pm, well....guess who gets blamed when the documents aren't updated by lunchtime?

Let's do some stupid sports wagering.

2005-01-11T09:56:00.000-08:00

We've got a good slate of football comin up - I'm warming up for the bad craziness that is superbowl gambling. Let's have a look.

I'm getting these lines from Marasoft, who claim to have a 'consensus line' which is essentially what I was doing with the election odds I wrote about in October and November. I think we can take these to be pretty close to the going action al all casinos in Vegas, even if it is a rough average. I initially tried checking online places but they all run lines with a money line. Ugh. So not only do you have to place a bet giving a spread you have to take odds on top of that. Forget that action. Leave it to the hockey morons.

Saturday:
Steelers -9 over the Jets, o/u 34.5
Come on, you HAVE to take the over on this. It started at 34 and moved north a half point, Steelers started at -8.5 and that moved to 9 as well. I'm not sure about that spread (9 and 4 are always dangerous numbers in a spread), but that o/u is absolutely screaming bet the over! bet the over! If I gotta pick though I'll take the Jets +9.

Falcons +7 over the Rams, o/u 48.5
The who? Rams? Where are they from? *scratches head*
Michael Vick throws four passes, the game's over. 'nuff said. Atlanta in an easy choice here. The over/under I want to lean under, cuz if it's 31-14 that's still under and I can't imagine St. Louis is going anywhere against the Atlanta defense.

Sunday:
Eagles +9.5 over the Vikings, o/u 48.5
Bah. Eagles, at home, against the Vikes. Easy. I'll take the over but only cuz T.O.'s gonna wanna shove a ball or two down Moss's throat.

Patriots +2.5 over the Colts, o/u 51.5
I like this mostly cuz the Colts play more than half their games indoors. It's FREAKING COLD in Boston, in case you have been living in Tahiti or Margaritaville for the past 3,000 years. Take the Pats + the under. If it's not too cold (meaning above 30), then I might go with the Colts. I'd wait till gameday for this bet to make sure injury rosters are fully released.

We're talkin football

2005-01-10T09:41:00.000-08:00

As it gets closer and closer to the time for the Superbowl, I can't help but remember my first timei n Las Vegas.
Superbowl Weekend. Also featuring a Chavez fight (where he lost for the first time - to nobody Frankie "The Surgeon" Randall). I stayed at teh MGM with my father and brother fille dup on my dad's exorbitant gambling comps.

So I'm wondering if I should make some wild-ass parlays. I remember, for instance, gettinga combo of the first points scored in the Superbowl plus the Kings winning their NHL game (Gretzky was still playing then) and getting something like 8-1 for that combo.

And no, it didn't pay off; Gretzky & co. managed to get their ass handed to them before the first score of the Superbowl. I don't even remember if that part of the bet worked out for me.

this just sucks

2005-01-07T07:57:00.000-08:00

This is misery.

Stuck here at a job where I have no respect.
No games.
Not enough time for backgammon.
Or anything.
This is misery.

Office Space

2005-01-04T13:04:00.000-08:00

I was in Federal Way recently and I noticed a place offering a small office to rent for $450 a month, including electric.
Hrm.

I didn't go look at it, but it was in the stripmall next to the Oriental Gardens, so it's not a dump.

It does put me in the mind of creating my own business, maybe some origami stuff (I gotta finish that T Rex skeleton). Or possibly the business idea I had earlier about taking groups to the casino to teach them how to play the various casino games, basic strategy, why you should never play keno, and the etiquette of chip handling at the table.

So many more people are going into casinos (and for some unknown reason are playing Spanish 21!!!) for the Texas Hold'em and they'll wanna try their hand at somehting that's less dependent on the amount of money you plop down the first time.

Philosophy

2005-01-04T09:26:00.000-08:00

Last night's class went pretty well, considering it's the first class. I was expecting maybe MAYBE 10 people in the class tops. There are 17. And three of them are planning on getting advanced degrees in philosophy. And for the most part the rest of them have never taken a class before.

Oh man this is gonna be a wild ride. First class in philosophy is my class??

Ah, well, the first two essays I'm having them read deal with God's perfection and the problem of evil. So at least we'll get some good discussion out of it.

Sick. N stuff

2005-01-03T09:23:00.000-08:00

It's quite possible that I'm patient Zero today.

There ar ea few peopel out with illness, and I was (and still am to some extent) pretty damn sick last week. And yet today in the morning meeting the CEO told the HR woman to stay home because she (the CEO) didn't want HR lady to "infect the entire staff."

Ha. Too late.

In other news, tonight is the first night of my class, and I'm anxious. Not about the class, but about the bullshit that happens in academics. All of the conflicting paperwork requirements (example: I'm not required to give a class syllabus to the students, but I am required to give one to the department), parking issues, IDs, online requirements (online? for a philosophy class? HAH!), etc. Essentially 99% of everything I hate about academics and teaching is all rolled up into a few hours today while I try to get everything straightened out.

And get my class list to boot.

I love wordplay

2005-01-03T09:09:00.000-08:00

Internet Anagram Server

Crap

2004-12-30T09:25:00.000-08:00

I lost the envelope containing the check that was supposed to pay my RV storage this month.

Crap.

Now I'm paranoid someone's gonna clean out my bank account.

Finger

2004-12-29T09:12:00.000-08:00

I busted my finger last night going to see my lawyer. She was being real cranky about how I had to come over and set up her surround sound. What? What's so hard about sticking wires into sockets? She did pay me in Bacardi limon, though, so it wasn't a total wash.

It's just that leaving her apartment building I gashed my finger open and it bled and bled and bled. There's not really a cut, just a strip-mining procedure. most of the skin on my inex finger's second segment is gone, throbbing, raw. ow ow ow. Of course writing this makes it throb more and hurt worse.

Le Last

2004-12-29T09:08:00.000-08:00

Well, that was it.

Last Tuesday night game I'll play for a few months.

Nothing positionally outstanding happened. But I did get some incredibly FUCKED UP rolls in my final match with Al. He won in four games, and the cube was never passed. That's right folks. 3 gammons in a row. GAH I've never danced like that EVER EVER EVER. The dice were definitely not with me.

The match before I played Molly, who I think shows up to play poker rather than backgammon even though Molly won the ABT tournament here in August, knocking off both the #1 and #2 ranked players in the country. But she seemed completely oblivious that she was going to play me in a match. I was winning 4-0 when the cube action went wild and eventually I owned the cube at 8 (8!!!) and won.

I played Trina in the first match of the night and that was just your average "she escaped my five point board on the first roll!" match. I played very well considering the dice fucked me harder than a first-time prisoner on cell block D.

But why Gambling????

2004-12-27T16:36:00.000-08:00

Why would I ever want to make gambling a career?

....or at least the source of my income?

Well, let's look at it logically. What am I qualified to do?
1) professor of philosophy. Eh. A lot of work (professors average 60 hours per week, compared to other professions) and it'll take me a long time to get where I can legitimately make a career of philosophy by not playing the "adjunct here adjunct there" hopscotch of looking for tenure.

2) writer. yeah well I hate writing. I'm good at it, yes, but I hate doing it 8-10 hours a day.

3) chef/restauranteur. Dad was a chef. Grampa was a chef. I did garde manger starting at age 4. Dad had a number of restaurants at one time. I'm not counting it out, but opening a restaurant is a huge risk, even if I know what I'm doing better than 99% of all Culinary School graduates.

4) gambler.

The advantage to being a gambler is that everything about "work" in modern society is a game. Ther eis not one person in HR who hires based on talent - it's all who you know. It's a game of getting in one place, a game of building up your portfolio, a game of climbing the corprate ladder. At least gambling offers the superficiality of the game as well. Is it work? Hell yes it's probably the only job that's harder than writing that I can think of; quite possibly the most mentally taxing job there is that doesn't involve judging the lives of others (Judge, Government Repsresntative, etc) and certainly the most taxing job that doesn't require a popularity contest to keep you there.

Gambling means if you play the game, you get paid. It's that simple. No other career option can offer that. No matter how much you play the corporate game, you can be downsized. No matter how much you play tenure track, you can still have your department closed (Hello, RPI?). No matter how good you are at the restaurant "game" you can still likely fail your first year. Gamble properly, gamble smart, and you'll succeed.

It's that simple.

The hard part is figuring out how to gamble properly and smart. Other jobs already have those rules to live by laid out for you.

What not to take

2004-12-26T20:39:00.000-08:00

This is the position I referred to previously:




 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: John (Cube: 2)

 |                  |   |             O    | OOO 2 points

 |                  |   |             O    | OOO 

 |                  |   |                  | OOO 

 |                  |   |                  | OO  

 |                  |   |                  | OO 

v|                  |BAR|                  |     7 point match

 |                  |   |                  | XX 

 |                  |   |                  | XX  

 |                  |   |                  | XXX 

 |                  |   |                X | XXX On roll

 |                  |   |                X | XXX 0 points

 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: Sean

Pip counts: O 4, X 2

Simply, John is about to roll, and his choices are to cube me or not.
The concept of him being "too good to double" here is pointless. He's already going to win 2 points on 26 rolls out of 36 (72.2% favorite) but if I accept the double, he's a 95% favorite to win the match; consider 72% of the time he wins this at 4 points if I accept, meaning I'm down 6-0.

When is this an acceptable take?
Depends on your ability to stomach gambling. If John does not get out on this roll (28%), I'm guaranteed to get out. So if this were a money game (therefore no match equity considerations), then this is a definite take for me. I'm 72% favorite to lose 2 units; but this double is just too juicy to ignore. 25 % is the point where double or nothing loses its value.

How is that?

Well, at 25% I'm going to lose 3 and win 1 out of four. If I am doubled and I drop, the opponent gets one point (or the value of the cube before doubling). If I do this all four times, I lose four points. If I take all the offered doubles, I lose three times, for a total of 6 points, but I win a fourth time (for two points) - so I'm net equal to dropping.

But I'm not at 25%, I'm at slightly under 28%. Which means that I'll end up at a net plus in the long run (but only in a money game situation!!!).

Remember, though, this is a HUGE screw up because of the position this places me in in the match if I lose. Obviously I'm more likely to lose the match if I'm behind 6-0 than if I am behind 4-0 (which is what the score would have been if I'd dropped).

Cube Handling

2004-12-22T10:47:00.000-08:00

So yesterday I made a massive cube error that paid off.

I took a ridiculous cube while I was losing a game 2-0 (to 7) to John.
We both had two men to take off, he had two on his 2 point, and I had two on my one point. John's turn to roll, and he redoubles me to 4, meaning I either take the cube and hope he rolls 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6. Anything else, including 1-1 means he wins.

If he doesn't make it in this position though, then I'm automatically off, since ANY roll gets my two men off the one point.

In this position in the match, if he doesn't double, he's a 75% favorite to win the match. (His odds of winning the game at this point are roughly 73%) If he doubles and I take, his match winning chances shoot up to an astronomical 96 percent!!

If you know anything about backgammon, you're thinking "Wait, Sean, you're better than 25% to win the game here, take the double!" Well, yeah, in a money position this is an absolute take. Especially for me. And in general the rule for accepting a double is if you have a 25% chance of winning the game.

But in this case what do I lose? Well, if I accept the double, and he gets out (obviously a likely proposition at 73%), I am now down 6-0 in a match to 7. I'm utterly screwed. If I don't take, he's up 4-0, and about 78% match winning chances. I only give up 5% equity to drop.

So I took. What can I say, I thought it was the right thing to do at that point. Plus I was in a gambling mood.

And then John rolled 4-1 and I won that game, meaning I was now up 4-2, and I went on to win the match 7-5.

Did I make the right decision? Not in that specific instance. But if it were a single-game situation, or a position where it would have put both of us into a position to win the match, then yes.

Christmas

2004-12-21T22:50:00.000-08:00

I walk in to the casino and they have a huge sign showing their christmas specials. depressing.

More on blackjack and related skills

2004-12-20T12:42:00.000-08:00

I'm gettin got the point where maybe I should jettison blackjack for soemthing more....well, simple.

Jettison might be the wrong word. But lose focus on.

I use a somewhat complicated system in counting cards (Omega II) which to be truly a blockbuster requires a sidecount of aces; it's still damn good without the sidecount but it's more complicated and somewhat equitable to the Hi-Lo count if you don't use a side ace count.

So I'm thinking that since the Muckleshoot and the Emerald Queen Casino are encroaching more and more territory that maybe I should turn to some video poker to focus play on.

It's a thought anyway.

nope

2004-12-20T09:56:00.000-08:00

Friday afternoon I heard back about MS and they said I wouldn't "make the cut."

Fuckers.

In which I pimp myself

2004-12-17T09:56:00.000-08:00

I've decided that from now on, every woman I come across, and every man who is not selling me gasoline, is necessarily lying to me. By nature. I've had it. I'm tired of women saying one thing then doing the complete opposite.

Anyway.

Yesterday there was interest in me as a writer. Someone from Microsoft's Trustworthy Computing group said they would like to consider me, but please send in a 500 word piece describing and explaining the future of Trustworthy computing. Reference www.microsoft.com/twc/ if you need to.

Then came the clobber.

You have 2 hours to write a 500 word piece and submit it with your resume.

Since they said "piece" and not "essay" and since they were looking for someone to slightly evangelize TWC (meaning glam it up, sell it, shake your moneymaker to the public), not a tech writer, well, this is what I wrote.

I know it's a bit sloppy but please remember I only had two hours.
===

EXT: A NEIGHBORHOOD PLAZA -- DAY
A large line of people snaked behind an open ATM. A woman is entering information into the ATM while everyone behind her is snaking around, heads popping up at every possible angle trying to see what is happening on the screen. Their view of the screen is blurry, yet the woman’s view of the ATM screen is crystal-clear

VOICEOVER
Trustworthy means more than protecting your personal information

INT: DOCTOR’S OFFICE -- DAY
The same woman from the ATM is a doctor in an examination room, consulting with her patient. The doctor is wearing a white lab coat and a stethoscope, seated on a chair next to a computer, while her patient is in a hospital gown, sitting on the examination table. Together they are looking at the information on the screen about the patient.

VOICEOVER
Trustworthy means more than working properly every time, all the time.

INT – MEETING ROOM -- DAY
The patient from the previous shot is sitting in a meeting, watching a presentation on a screen led by a presenter who is illustrating the rising profitability of recent quarters.

VOICEOVER
Trustworthy means more than ensuring the next sale.

INT – AIRPORT SECURITY CHECKPOINT -- DAY
The presenter from the earlier meeting is in the airport and passes through security checks quickly, as the security guards are able to scan both the baggage and the presenter with high-tech wands and hand-held computers. The computer that the security guard uses to ensure the safety of the presenter’s bag clearly shows a message showing that there is nothing dangerous in the bag.

VOICEOVER
Trustworthy means more than creating a safer world.

EXT – ELEMENTARY SCHOOL -- DAY
A child comes running, bounding down the steps of the elementary school. The school is a proud, old, brick school, and a flag flying on the flagpole nearby. The child’s backpack swings from her rush to the car as the security guard from the previous shot pulls up along the front walk to the school. Everyone is happy to see each other once more everyone is smiling. After the child climbs into the car the security guard/driver turns to the camera, with the window open, arm and elbow placed on the car windowsill.

SECURITY GUARD/DRIVER (to camera)
Trustworthy means (with emphasis) I don’t have to worry.

As the car drives off, the VOICEOVER continues

VOICEOVER
Trustworthy computing protects your personal information, letting only those who should have it, have it. Trustworthy computing ensures that it’s safe, secure, and never fails.

===

I still haven't heard back.

This has all turned to crap

2004-12-15T09:31:00.000-08:00

because of work I've not been able to play backgammon in two weeks.

And because of the teaching requirements I won't be able to play backgammon until mid-march at best.

So this morning I wake up to find that the seal on the toilet at the floor has failed somehow and there is a new stream flowing in my bathroom. The only bright spot in all of this is that I don't own my own place.

In other news I'm being jerked around by another woman. Says one thing, does the exact opposite. I am so freaking tired of women and their lies. I'm especially tired of women who say "Oh but I'm strightforward, if I don't like something I'll tell you" and then avoid any subject that doesn't suit her. Or me, if that's the subject.

What is so freaking wrong with saying what you feel? And why is it ok to lie about how you don't lie????

Results...

2004-12-10T11:17:00.000-08:00

You are glucose. People feed off of you. You are
sweet, caring, and a source of energy for
everyone around you. You can inspire others
with your creativity and depth, and you can
keep people alive when in times of famine.
People love you...or at least the way you
taste.

Which Biological Molecule Are You?
brought to you by Quizilla

Cool!

2004-12-03T09:47:00.000-08:00

Take the cool person test.

Another position

2004-12-01T11:38:00.000-08:00

This one turned up last night. At first I thought it was a real head scratcher, but after looking at it through the computer it seems very interesting for completely different reasons:


The score (after 0 games) is: Les 4, Sean 1 (match to 7 points)

Match Information:



Move number 5: X to play 11



 GNU Backgammon  Position ID: vO0GwADYzWEDEA

                 Match ID   : cInkAEAACAAA

 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+     O: Les

 | X              O |   | O  O  O  O  X    |     4 points

 | X              O |   | O  O  O  O       |     

 |                  |   | O        O       |     

 |                  |   |          O       |     

 |                  |   |                  |    

v|                  |BAR|                  |     7 point match (Cube: 1)

 |                  |   |                  |    

 |                  |   |                  |     

 |             X    |   |    X             |     

 | X           X  O |   | X  X  X          |     Rolled 11

 | X           X  O |   | X  X  X          |     1 point

 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+     X: Sean

Pip counts: O 98, X 132

I'm way behind. Almost 40 pips, and Les is creaming me 4-1.
At first I thought this position came down to a choice between moving 13/11(2) and 12/10(2). I didn't want to move the checkers off of the 13 point because I wanted a safe place for the back man on the 23 point to run to. At the same time I didn't want to lose the nice block I had on the far side, which is why I'd leaned towards the 13/11(2) move.

It's better to move 12/10(2) (and only an equity of 0.003 better than 12/11(2) 5/3) than 13/11(2) by 3% - my chances of winning the entire match are 3% less compared to the 12/10(2). Not that substantial but at this point I need every edge I can get.

But what makes this position most interesting is that my game winning chances are at about 35%. Yeah. While my match winning chances are hovering around 22%, since there is no cube in play - my game winning chances are within take odds. Hovering just at them, actually. And why is this such a fantastic take? 35% is an acceptable take. But looking more closely at this, a full 1/3 of my wins are gammons. So if Les were stupid enough to throw the cube to me (which he isn't) in this position, I'd gain a massive advantage in cube ownership alone. Add the very real possibility of getting a gammon on Les (which was not apparent to me at all over the board. I thought I was a lost cause), and I am back in it at 5-5.

Les loses a LOT more than is readily apparent by doubling here. And I get a lot more than a point.

I need to put this in my notebook, to see why this is a no double/take position for me. In fact, there is only one market loser for the next roll - 55 - and even then it's not that automatic given what I stand to gain compared to what I could lose with relation to my position in the match, as opposed to the game.

Jackets and job interviews

2004-11-30T18:32:00.000-08:00

So two nights ago I'm getting my crap together to go for my job interview, and to go see the people at the community college.
I go to the back back back of my closet to get the one suitcoat I have not packed away at my mom's. There are two there. Weird.

So I grab them both and the pants. I put on the first coat, too tight. The second coat is a bit too small but it's not pinching my armpits (the usual problem I have with coats); I leave it on while I get the pants.

Both pair of pants are about 10" too small in the waist and about 8" too long in the inseam. What the hell is goin on here??

While I'm trying to figure out what the hell is going on I brush against something in the coat pocket to find...a purple satin yarmulke. Inside on the cotton lining there's a gold stamp commemorating the bat mitzvah of some girl in January 2002.

I've not worn a coat for at least that long; longer, really.

All I can imagine is that my coats were switched with someone at the cleaners. But...? I had no reason to take coats to the cleaners in late January 2002 or afterwards.

Freaky.

Keeping a notebook

2004-11-30T16:11:00.000-08:00

As much as Cam's suggestion to keep a notbook has worked as a good idea, I still haven't done it. I dont' even know where to start. I can't really tell "common positions" because this is a game of chance. *sigh*

I did get some extra cash though, against my better judgment, so I'll probably play some blackjack tonight too.

Hey

2004-11-29T12:40:00.000-08:00

So I'm your new comparative religions instructor at Edmonds Community College.

Maybe I'll do a separate blog for that.

Notebook

2004-11-23T22:10:00.000-08:00

I am still waiting for my 2nd match of the night. I was talking with Cam, and he told me I need to heep a notebook of +/- 3% equity cube positions to better prepare for game situations. I will start that.

Man, THAT SUCKED

2004-11-23T21:18:00.000-08:00

I just got beat HARD by Ron. Damn. 7-0!

Changin Tha Casino

2004-11-23T20:32:00.000-08:00

So I walk in to wizards casino just like every tuesday, and it looks like they are completely renovating and moving everything around. huh!

Blogthings - You Are the Individualist

2004-11-23T15:01:00.000-08:00

You Are the Individualist

4

You are sensitive and intuitive, with others and yourself.

You are creative and dreamy... plus dramatic and unpredictable.

You're emotionally honest, real, and easily hurt.

Totally expressive, others always know exactly how you feel.

What number are you?

Jobs

2004-11-22T19:29:00.000-08:00

Further realizing my Kramer-like ability to fall assbackwards into jobs, it looks like I am the new comparative religions instructor at Edmonds Community College in Edmonds, WA.

Hm.

working on sunday

2004-11-22T09:35:00.000-08:00

I came in to work yesterday, because I feel obligated. I was here maybe two hours and it turns out what I did moved the project forward a day. huh.

I'm still feeling very anxious about my future. It's hard not to. Money is a definite problem and I'm going to end up losing a lot here if something doesn't turn around for me.

You Are Turkey and Gravy Soda

2004-11-19T15:39:00.000-08:00

Blogthings - You Are Turkey and Gravy Soda: "

You Are Turkey and Gravy Soda

Gobble. Gobble.

What Jones Holiday Soda Are You?

Yo!

2004-11-18T10:09:00.000-08:00

Thursday night backgammon!

2004-11-17T13:49:00.000-08:00

Meetup.com has a seattle meet-up for backgammon players at Elliot Bay Bookstore tomorrow night.

I'm gonna try to go but it is Thursday night, I'll probably be working late, and it's all they way into town (abt 25 miles) plus: PAYING FOR PARKING!

I swear paying for parking must be unconstitutional.

MISSED!

2004-11-17T01:44:00.000-08:00

Grah.

I didn't make it to the tournament.

Cuz I got booty called by someone I'd only exchanged a couple emails with. I'll leave out the gory details but I should mention that this looks like it might be a semi-regular thing. We're set up for friday evening as well. The only downside is that it can't be at her place cuz she declared herself hetero a few years ago (after 20+ years of hardcore political dyke) and her roomie is still a hardcore manhater.

Oh how I do love a woman who loves assplay. And you bet your...donkey...she does.

Omega II count

2004-11-16T11:27:00.000-08:00

Previously I'd mentioned that I use the Omega II count when I go out on blackjack tears.

I've not been playing in the casinos lately, but I have been at the bookstore a lot since my daughter loves going and looking at the pokemon ruby/sapphire game guides when she gets stuck.

That's fine by me since it leaves me a few moments to check out the blackjack books out on the market.

There are essentially two master works on the subject out there:
Stanford Wong's Professional Blackjack (which is for someone who is already comfortable with counting cards), and
Bryce Carlson's Blackjack for Blood.

Rever's books are ok too but they're outdated and require massive team strategy to make them work effectively. And working team strategy requires a level of "con game" and subtle communication across multiple game tables, which really isn't worth the effort unless every person working it is an expert.

In which case you don't need the book.

However there are some NASTY AWFUL books out there that really shoudl be taken and burned and the authors hung for promoting such shitty work as not only "stragety" but also "writin'"

Any book by George Pappadopoulos is vile and a complete rip-off. For one thing, he claims a 78% win rate, and then goes on to explain a winning session as one where you win 50% of what you showed up with (leaving with $150 if you show up with $100), but a losing session means losing all of the money you showed up with. Fantastic! You have to win 2 to 1 to even break even using that accounting method.

Any book by Richard Harvey mostly because this dumbass promotes a strategy of bet manipulation in order to get ahead. It just boils down to a mathematical manipulation of "chasing your bets" which is ALWAYS a great way to lose your money faster than your moronic "stragety" which probably includes splitting nines against a dealer's 8.

Backgammon tonight. I still haven't received the club ranking email. but I know I'm well at the bottom. Let's go win.

PERFECT

2004-11-15T10:46:00.000-08:00

Hey look at me.

Stood up for yet another date. Fucking perfect.
Sometimes I wish I were gay cuz then I wouldn't feel bad about caliing another guy an asshole for doing this shit to me.

I haven't not been able to go to a casino in a while. The closest I've been able to come to that is looking at the blackjack books at the bookstore and laughing my ass off at the "strategies."

Harry Potter has gone nuts

2004-11-12T13:49:00.000-08:00

So I'm into gambling - no secret there.

I also enjoy the mental exercise in making lines, football games, baseball, elections, and I've mentioned the odds some british books are making on Harry Potter.

And today I just noticed that not only is there odds posted on the major character to die in the next book, but they have odds on how much the movie grosses.

And I've managed to dig up old odds on the Order of the Phoenix book. They were posting Hermione at 50-1 in that book and McGonagall at 6-1.

Currently here is the rundown on the character to die in the Half-Blood Prince:

Hagrid (favorite) 6/4
Dumbledore 2/1
McGonagall 2/1
Cho Chang 3/1
Fred and/or George Weasley(hey, a twofer!) 4-1
Ginny Weasley 5/1
Hermione 5/1 (a HUGE bump from the last book's 50-1, no?)
Molly Weasley 5/1
Ron Weasley 5/1
Severus Snape 5/1
Arthur Weasley 6/1
Neville Longbottom 6/1
Dobby 10/1
Oliver Wood 12/1
Draco 14/1

....and apparently some dumbass is putting money on Harry Potter - 16/1.

It was just here a minute ago....

2004-11-10T09:43:00.000-08:00

Jebus Cribt.
I meet women who I'm introduced to because they want to meet someone who's artistic and creative, they just generally want a man who lives passionately.

Which I am.

And then I never hear from them and when I do, they don't want to see me any more because I'm too intense?

HELLO?

WHAT THE FUCK DO YOU THINK PASSIONATE MEANS???

If I'm passionate about something do you think I take it lightheartedly???

I'm freaking tired of women telling me they want a passionate caring guy when all they really want is someone to treat them like shit. Tired of the lies.

Tuesday night backgammon

2004-11-09T23:04:00.000-08:00

I was thinking my play is getting better in terms of the club rankings, since I'm progressing further in the brackets.

but then I realized that losing one (to get into teh consolation bracket) automatically puts me at a disadvantage in getting a positive win rate. So on a night like tonight, which I thought I was doing great, I won one and lost two.

Great.

But I think I played well, with a few exceptions, but those exceptions I was able to identify right away. I'm getting much much better at knowing when to escape back checkers and when to moves third quadrant men instead.

First match was against Bill, someone who was just starting with the club but most of the really experienced oplayers knew him. I was winning but let the cube get to four in a situation where he was four-away, meaning that even though I was winning the match, all he had to do was win the one game to win the match.

Which is what happened.

Then I beat Les, who is the only person in the club I haven't lost to, then I played Ruth in the smi-finals and lost in a gammon situation.

But I did make some money playing Cam. We were gonna start a chouette but nobody wanted to join in, so we just played a straight game. Money!